So I spend a great deal of time worrying about a great deal of things - much of which end up getting bottled up and ultimately costing me days of time. I imagine this blog as something of an effort to get those worries out, so I can have explored them more concretely then simply jumping from article to article that ultimately say the same thing.
So, current concerns are with regard to Russia and Ukraine. I suppose I fall upon the side of the Europeans in this regard, I don't think sending any military assistance to Ukraine is called for, nor do I think it will help the situation. For one, anything significant enough to make a dent in Russian supported advances would be outside the capabilities of the Ukrainian military - who appear to be mostly conscripts at this point rather than a traditional, and trained, force. If this is the case, then there's little actual reason, and many good reasons, not to send further assistance - it will only delay the inevitable. Poroshenko has to understand that no amount of help will actually allow him to beat the separatists. None. He should now solely be concerned with protecting those Ukrainians that are outside the current battle lines, and securing the safety of the people of Mariupol - even if that means pulling the Ukrainian military out of the city. If they stay, it will be attacked, and he will lose - and thousands of lives will be lost.
To receive aid, then, Ukraine has to give the impression that they are in better shape then they actually are - which means, potentially, lowering the amount of casualties that they are experiencing. This is something that the German Security Forces seem to understand, and have to challenge. In order to back up Merkel, they have to convince Ukraine and the United States that any attempt to bolster Ukrainian arms is one that is pointless, as the Ukrainian military is coming apart at the seams. Merkel's unfortunate task is to force Poroshenko to agree to terms that are anathema to him, but are nevertheless the ones he is being offered. If he's smart, he'll accept them. He has to deal with the situation as it is, not as he wants it to be.
As for Putin - I am somewhat less concerned about him than most are. I believe that he's been supporting the Ukrainian separatists - which he denies - but not that he will necessarily advance farther than that. What seems to be happening is a significant misunderstanding of where his thinking is coming from. If he sees Russia under threat, from NATO expansion or what have you, he will do what he can to prevent that threat. It is very clear that NATO and Russia do not see eye to eye on this, and that's a worldview problem more than anything else. In any event, sending weapons to Ukraine (that they wouldn't be able to use), would feed right into the Russian narrative. Not that it already hasn't - see Putin and the separatists accusation of 'NATO legions' in Ukraine. But should we really be giving him a stronger hand?
A better strategy, then, is to work for peace, and set up information infrastructure like Voice of Europe, etc. that could be used to counter Russian propaganda. Moreover, there should be a focus on firming up the relationships in the Baltics among Russian speakers and the local governments. It should be made incredibly difficult for Russia to get a foothold in those areas in the same way that happened in Crimea/South-East Ukraine.
Anyway, Merkel and Hollande are in the right of it. Everything must be done to end this situation diplomatically. Arms will not help - and Poroshenko must understand that he has lost, and adjust to that reality. Otherwise more will die, more will flee, and wider war might break out.
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