Ceasfire?

Perhaps unsurprisingly, in the run up to the ceasefire in the Ukraine there have been significant advances on both sides of the proposed ceasefire area - Ukrainian backed forces (I hesitate to say Ukrainian military) pushed north out Mariupol - or have tried / are trying to, while Seperatists have been shelling Debaltseve pretty regularly. The idea there being that Debaltseve should fall before the beginning of the truce, thus securing separatists a significant transportation hub.

Apparently the entire reason the ceasefire did not start immediately was to give the rebels the chance to take the town - and Putin had to be bargained down from a 10 day gap to the more conservative, but no less dangerous 3 day gap between Minsk and the start of the ceasefire.

So what happens now is anyone's guess - chances are the Ukrainian forces are completely surrounded in Debaltseve, and at the federal level, its not entirely clear that Kiev is in charge of the forces in Mariupol. Instead, the Right Sector (ultra-nationalists), have vowed to keep fighting independent of any treaty, judging it, "unconstitutional." So there's a chance that would basically play right into Putin's hands - and it's not clear that the west would actually note the Azov Battalion's forward movement as 'breaking the ceasefire.' Keep in mind these are the people some American's want to arm.

In other news, Russian media doesn't exactly cover the ongoing battle over Debaltseve - and only have the best things to say about the DHK and LHK militias and how willing they are to participate in the ceasefire. So there's that.

Here's hoping this works. There's about 45 minutes left until the ceasefire is supposed to take effect, but DHK militia have already stated that Debaltseve will likely remain under bombardment until the Ukrainians there are forced to surrender.